Will Erdoğan and Gül really clash?

Etyen Mahçupyan

The back-to-back speeches given by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the recent Justice and Development Party (AK Party) congress and then by President Abdullah Gül in Parliament have triggered some vocal comparisons.

These types of analyses have been very popular for a while now in the secular media. Some of the same voices who just five years ago lent support to the political intervention carried out by the General Staff headquarters over the Internet, without even a vague attempt to recall the past, are now voicing support for Gül. Actually though, the five years that have passed since that Internet intervention have changed neither Erdoğan nor Gül at all. The prime minister is a character who draws strength from his own charisma, who puts no distance between his stance as a politician and as a human and who does not shy away from reactive behavior. As for the president, he is careful, with a personality that is somewhat distanced and likes to listen and hear things. There are actually no great differences between them when it comes to their shared desire to integrate the sensitivities of Islamic factions with the global world system. Both men have voter blocs that they appeal to and to whom they listen, and actually, their dual stances seem to come together in one united bloc.

At the same time, it appears that the secular factions of Turkey do not possess the cool-headedness to look at the matter from this perspective. Especially in light of the Balyoz case, the idea that the AK Party leadership will not be able to prevent consolidation in the long term has really taken root. The only exit from this situation is for the ruling party to split. It appears that the most realistic split comes at the point of differences between Erdoğan and Gül. Tension a while ago between the AK Party and the Gülen group pushed a similar sort of split possibility. The political dimension of that “project” was one in which Gül’s name was frequently mentioned. This is because if there were to be a split, it is expected that the Gülen group would give its support to the president. In the end, though, it turned out that the Gülen group was in fact not nearly as “political” as the secular factions of the country expected, with this group ultimately giving off the message that for it, its own societal service approaches were much more important. Curiously, some of those same voices who until just recently found the Gülen group to be “too political” now found themselves bemoaning the deficiencies of the group in this area.

Some despairing secular factions of Turkey find themselves taking heart from the Erdoğan/Gül struggles. The unclear point on this front is the shaping of the AK Party political model based on patriarchal codes. On that flank, there is no positive political response to individual stances. It appears that those who behave “like themselves” cannot find support within the Islamic factions. Earlier, Erdoğan opened up the path towards Gül becoming the first AK Party prime minister and then president. And now, a more general sense of justice indicates that Gül should be pulling to the side. If Gül were to compete against Erdoğan, he would later have a hard time strolling through the streets of his own “neighborhood.”

All right, but is there in fact no tension then between Erdoğan and Gül? And if there is, what conditions would trigger this tension to bring about some breaking point? For those who are categorically opposed to the AK Party, there is some reason for hope because there is in fact some tension. The speeches from both of these men last week were also expressions of their desire to move ahead to their next positions of duty. When Erdoğan, as prime minister, distributed the things he should be saying out loud in a booklet, he was drawing for himself an axis that in fact transcends the country. As for Gül, he gave a speech that touched directly on Turkish matters, embracing definitive stances on these matters. In other words, for Erdoğan and Gül to swap places would in fact be a very natural development.

At the same time, though, there is one hitch herein: Erdoğan has in mind a model that is based on the idea of “a president with a party.” In this way, he would work from Çankaya but be able to focus amply on details that concerned his party, too. And this, of course, is a model that would be the least desirable for Gül, as it would leave him bereft of authority and effect. I wonder if finding some middle ground would not be possible here? There is the possibility that Erdoğan is not taking a step that society is not ready for because he does not wish to see his friend and journey-mate fall into a leadership position he does not actually want. In other words, one in which Gül would become prime minister. Another possibility is that, at the “request” of Erdoğan, Gül would move on to some international duties, and the era of the single powerful man would continue on for a while.

Published on Today's Zaman, 11 October 2012, Thursday

Posted in: Abdullah Gul, Etyen Mahcupyan, Gulen Movement, Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey